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Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) has been spending a lot added banknote than it generates from subscriptions aback it started ramping up its aboriginal agreeable plans. Aftermost year, for example, Netflix austere through about $2 billion in cash. This year, the aggregation affairs to absorb a lot added on both agreeable and marketing, and expects it to aftereffect in abrogating chargeless banknote breeze amid $3 billion and $4 billion.

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The aggregation has been allotment its spending by arising debt, admitting a almost poor acclaim rating. But the aggregation aloof got a nice bang from Moody’s, which added its acclaim appraisement based on estimates that appearance the aggregation axis cash-flow absolute by 2022.

Here’s how investors can apprehend Netflix to go from afire banknote at aberrant levels to rolling in the dough.

A being sitting abaft a board attractive at a laptop in the antechamber of Netflix’s appointment in Los Gatos, California.

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Image source: Netflix.

Netflix is advance all of this money in agreeable and business now because it believes it will pay off in abiding subscriber growth. The aggregation had about 111 actor paid alive subscribers as of the end of 2017, and Moody’s analyst Neil Begley expects it to ability 200 actor by the end of 2021.

That appraisal basically assumes Netflix will see no arrest in subscriber advance afterwards abacus 21.5 actor net new subscribers in 2017. Netflix, in fact, has apparent accelerating user advance over the accomplished year admitting lapping its all-around amplification barrage at the alpha of aftermost year.

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Most of that advance will appear from all-embracing markets, area Netflix is still almost young. But Netflix’s advance isn’t absolutely slowing bottomward in the U.S., and administration sees abiding abeyant for amid 60 actor and 90 actor subscribers. It had 52.8 actor as of the end of aftermost year.

Due to Netflix’s constant appraisement amid countries, anniversary subscriber is annual almost the aforementioned bulk to Netflix behindhand of area they’re located. That’s in adverse to added companies that bulk their casework based on the economies of alone markets. So, alike if advance stagnates in the U.S., all-embracing advance is annual aloof as abundant to Netflix.

Netflix barter in the U.S. saw a alternation of bulk increases from 2014 to 2017 that resulted in the bulk of the best accepted Netflix plan accretion from $7.99 per ages to $10.99 per month. Barter in added complete all-embracing markets saw agnate bulk increases based on their bill and barter rates.

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In all likelihood, Netflix will abide to accession its ante over the aing bristles years. Its bulk is still able-bodied beneath HBO Now, and it’s alike beneath Hulu’s commercial-free price. Considering the affection of content, there’s acceptable still allowance to access the price.

Price increases accompanying with connected subscriber advance care to aftereffect in cogent acquirement advance over the aing bristles years. An 80% access in subscribers (to about 200 million) accumulated with a 10% access in bulk (about $1 per subscriber) would aftereffect in about bifold the revenue.

The advance of Netflix’s agreeable spending is slowing on a about basis. The aggregation spent $6.4 billion on agreeable aftermost year, up from $5 billion in 2016, a 28% increase. This year it expects to absorb amid $7.5 billion and $8 billion on content, a 17% to 25% access year over year.

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Story Continues

Of course, those numbers alone accommodate the amortized abstracts Netflix uses to annual for its agreeable spending. Its absolute banknote payments are college because actors and producers assignment in entertainment, not accounting, and charge to be paid for their assignment as they’re accomplishing it. As it slows bottomward its about-face to from accountant agreeable to added aboriginal content, the advance in banknote acclimated for agreeable care to apathetic alike faster than the advance in amortized agreeable spending.

In the company’s fourth-quarter letter to shareholders, administration wrote, “We are accretion operating margins and apprehend that in the future, a aggregate of ascent operating profits and slowing advance in aboriginal agreeable absorb will about-face our business [free banknote flow] positive.” The aggregation is absolutely active on that plan.

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Whether or not Netflix becomes cash-flow absolute in 2022 (or sooner) is abundantly abased on how able its added spending on agreeable and business is. As continued as Netflix’s investments are advantageous off in subscriber advance and accredit it to abide adopting its prices, Netflix may accumulate blame its spending higher. That would adjournment acceptable cash-flow positive, but it would ultimately aftereffect in added banknote advancing in over the continued run.

Added From The Motley Fool

Adam Levy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Moody’s and Netflix. The Motley Fool has a acknowledgment policy.

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