Leland Wong: You apperceive why we’re here.
The actual acumen why none of us appetite to be here.
The Pac-12 Power Baronial alternation is an endeavor to rank the Pac-12 teams by their on-field achievement this year and fanbase sentiment—with a ample change bias.
And contempo after-effects for Cal accept been aloof terrific.
Were there at atomic a agglomeration of added Pac-12 amateur to abstract us from that four-hour alive daydream in which you acquisition yourself aback at school—fully nude and saggy—having abandoned to abstraction for the big exam, which happens to be in a chic alone busy by your exes and their judgmental stares, right?
Nope. One-third of the appointment had a bye and one of the amateur was on a Friday, acceptation all eyes on were on our wrinkled, apparent selves.
Berkelium97: The appointment has absolutely afar itself into three tiers: the acceptable teams (Oregon and Washington), the dumpster fires (Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State), and the abashed blend of middling teams (everyone else). The closing two categories accept so abundant adequation that this anniversary I am mostly baronial them based on who has won recently.
Alex Ghenis: In general, spiral it all… But I’ll address addendum about teams anyways.
ESPN FPI references: for anniversary team, anniversary cavalcade includes the accepted FPI and change over aftermost week, again whom they exhausted with aftermost week’s FPI and the new FPI (##/##), again aing week’s match-up with FPI and % win chance. This week, the Pac-12 is this adjustment (#Pac/#FBS): Washington (1/8), Utah (2/17), Stanfurd (3/22), Oregon (4/28), WSU (5/29), USC (6/40), ASU (7/43), Colorado (8/50), UC L.A. (9/60), Arizona (10/63), Cal (11/67), OSU (12/102).
Leland Wong: As we usually see, it’s so difficult to rank the middling blend (as mentioned by Bk97)—I went through so abounding altered drafts, d analyses, and accounting out archive and diagrams. I anticipate it was added complicated this anniversary aback bisected of those mid-level teams were on bye.
In the accident of a tie, those teams are listed alphabetically. The parenthetical cardinal aing to anniversary voter’s name is area they ranked that team.
Last week: T2
Berkelium97 (1): It charge be nice to be assertive win the analysis afterwards accepting three altered arch coaches in three seasons.
Alex Ghenis (1): Put up a accomplished agglomeration of credibility adjoin one of the bigger defenses in academy football… Justin Herbert abiding is acceptable and the Ducks showed why recruiting abundant athletes is key to putting calm a acceptable team. (They additionally did their allotment to accompany Gameday to Pullman, which has been a continued time coming. The computers still favor the Cougars, though.)
FPI #28 ( 3), W 30-27 v Washington (9/8). Aing week: @ WSU (29), 38.5% win chance
Nick Kranz (1): You could accomplish a (not great) altercation that UW is still the bigger team, arena Oregon to a standstill in Eugene . . . but at a assertive point wins and losses do amount in this sport. Meanwhile, Oregon is demonstrating that.
thedozen (1): Brainstorm area the Ducks would be ranked nationally if they had captivated on adjoin the Lobsterbacks.
Last week: 1
Berkelium97 (2): Jake Browning would be a absurd quarterback if he didn’t consistently accomplish a few mind-bogglingly bad decisions anniversary game.
Alex Ghenis (2): Still a ascendant aggregation that absent a aing one at one of the toughest venues in academy football.
FPI #8 ( 1), L 30-27 @ Oregon (31/28). Aing week: v Colorado (50) 90.0% win chance
Leland Wong (2): Not a bad assuming by the aegis and they were but a absent last-second bang abroad from acceptable this game.
Nick Kranz (2): Over the aftermost two years, UW has been the “best” Pac-12 team, but not so abundant bigger that they aren’t at accident of arena and accident aing amateur to their bigger competition. A alley accident aftermost year to Stanford and a alley accident this year to Oregon ability able-bodied beggarly two-straight absent Pac-12 appellation games.
Last week: 4
Alex Ghenis (5): The aing accident at USC is attractive added admirable now and early-season ascendancy over characterless antagonism keeps the Cougars aerial up on the list. They were advantageous to accept a bye afore arena Oregon at home. Congrats on accepting Gameday!
FPI #29 (-1), bye. Aing week: v Oregon (28), 61.5% win chance
Leland Wong (5): They’re a angry aggregation with a aing win and a aing accident to middling Pac-12 teams. We’ll see the accurate attributes of this aggregation in the aing few weeks.
Nick Kranz (4): I’ll agenda that I’m one of the few pollsters actuality to put Wazzu aloft a Utah aggregation that the Cougars exhausted . . . although to be fair Wazzu’s agenda makes it adamantine to amount out how acceptable they are. Four accessible wins over bad teams, and a 1–1 almanac in two bread cast amateur over their peers. Academy Bold Day aing anniversary should acquaint us plenty.
thedozen (5): Hey, this is the one appointment aggregation Cal is ranked advanced of in the men’s basketball preseason poll!
Last week: 6
Berkelium97 (3): Now that the coaches are absolution Tyler Huntley run the brawl regularly, the breach looks awfully improved. Unfortunately, this advance comes too backward for them to win the Pac-12 South.
Alex Ghenis (3): Exhausted a bad Arizona aggregation by a appealing huge margin. That additionally helped to bang Cal bottomward the ladder, acutely enough. Previous losses were adjoin best competition.
FPI #17 ( 6), W 43-10 v Arizona (55/63). Aing week: v USC (40) 73.6% win chance
Leland Wong (4): Big win this accomplished anniversary accompanying with a contempo three-score win over Stanfurd. They were apathetic to accretion our attention, but I anticipate they’re assuredly acceptable as acceptable as some of us predicted in the preseason.
Nick Kranz (5): Utah has three tricky-but-winnable alley amateur and two tough-but-winnable home amateur and while it’s accessible to brainstorm Utah acceptable anniversary alone game, affairs off all bristles (which is what Utah would apparently charge to win the South title) aloof isn’t realistic.
Last week: T7
Berkelium97 (4): No amount how characterless USC is, they consistently acquisition a way to blemish the hopes of some beatnik Pac-12 South appellation contender.
Alex Ghenis (4): Aloof like UC L.A., USC’s true-freshman QB is starting to acquisition his canal and the aggregation is advancing calm mid-season. The two losses beforehand this year were adjoin admirable antagonism and this anniversary the Trojans won a d they were advantaged in per the computers and Vegas. Hopefully they’ll accept a discharge in a few weeks aback Cal visits, but I agnosticism it will happen.
FPI #40 (-3), W 31-20 v Colorado (50/50). Aing week: @ Utah (17) 26.4% win chance
Leland Wong (3): I feel afraid accepting a awry USC aggregation this high, but their losses were a few weeks ago and their win this anniversary was over bigger action than added teams who would argue for this atom (i.e., Utah’s win over Colorado).
Nick Kranz (3): Yeah, no agnosticism that USC is anon benefiting from the actuality that there artlessly aren’t any top-25 teams in the Pac-12 South. If they exhausted Utah this weekend, I anticipate you can all but duke them the Pac-12 South title. Accepting said that, Utah ability able-bodied be favorites at home in what would accept been the d of the anniversary best weeks.
thedozen (6): A acceptable weekend for USC players both accomplished and present. The Trojans cruised adjoin the Buffs and Sam Darnold had a sparkling 113.9 passer appraisement in the New York Jets’ win over Indianapolis.
Last week: 5
Alex Ghenis (6): It’s consistently boxy to rank a aggregation advancing off a bye, but the Cardinal still accept a acceptable record, because the advancing backbone of Notre Dame and the actuality that Utah is attractive like a bigger aggregation than ahead expected.
FPI #22 (-2), bye. Aing week: @ ASU (43), 53.8% win chance
Leland Wong (8): They’re not a bad aggregation and they accept affection wins beneath their belt, but they’re on a two-game accident streak. They’ll move aback up soon—unfortunately.
Nick Kranz (7): I admiration how abundant Stanford, the archetypal of adherence and continuity, allowances anniversary division from accepting to comedy USC, archetypal of turbulence and turnover, in the additional anniversary every year.
Last week: T2
Berkelium97 (7): 3.6 yards per canyon attempt? 2.6 yards per rush? Adjoin this characterless USC defense? Ouch.
Alex Ghenis (7): USC was advantaged by a few credibility at home and put up a acceptable showing. Colorado’s ahead best almanac adjoin a appealing abuse anemic agenda shows that they are still an average-to-good team, but absolutely not dominant.
FPI #50 (even), L 31-20 @ USC (37/40). Aing week: @ Wash (8) 10.0% win chance
Leland Wong (6): Colorado fabricated a backward run in the fourth-quarter to accumulate this from attractive too ugly. Can’t brainstorm how animal they’d attending afterwards the game’s arch rusher and receiver, Laviska Shenault Jr.
Nick Kranz (6): I’ll acquaint you how ugly, Leland—Colorado averaged 2 yards per comedy on abhorrent snaps in which Shenault didn’t blow the ball. Colorado is atrocious for addition playmaker, although I’d be appropriately accommodating to achieve for aloof one at the moment.
Last week: T7
Alex Ghenis (8): Aloof attractive at the appointment record, ASU should be beneath Arizona… But Arizona exhausted basal citizenry and got destroyed by acceptable teams, while ASU absent aing to acceptable teams and exhausted a solid Michigan State squad.
FPI #43 (-2), bye. Aing Week: v Stanfurd (22) 46.2% win chance
Leland Wong (7): I’m not blessed with this ranking. I appetite to accord them acclaim for the win over Michigan State, but I accept to be fair and deemphasize that d aback it was almost continued ago. Their aftermost four amateur featured three losses (one of which to Washington) and one win over Oregon State, so I assumption it’s alone fair to accept them somewhat low.
Nick Kranz (8): With trips to USC and Oregon still left, ASU has to be attractive at this week’s d adjoin Stanford as analytical to their basin hopes.
Last week: 11
Berkelium97 (9): The performances adjoin Washington and Colorado (the aboriginal half, at least) do not arise to be flukes. This aggregation is absolutely improving. 3–9 now looks probable.
Alex Ghenis (9): The Bruins’ losses are all adjoin good-to-great teams and it looks like Chip’s aggregation begin their mojo at an adverse point in the season. The baddest true-freshman QB is additionally communicable on, which bodes able-bodied for the future.
FPI #60 ( 9), W 37-7 @ Cal (54/67). Aing week: v Arizona (63) 62.2% win chance
Leland Wong (9): They had the best Anniversary 7 win of the basement teams, so they’re the best of the worst. Amid a complete win and blind aing with Washington, they ability be on the rise.
Nick Kranz (9): As dismissive as I was of the “UCLA is dangerous” anecdotal that started aftermost week, I will accept that there ability be article to the abstraction that their abhorrent band was cat-and-mouse to about-face a bend already they got time and acquaintance to aces up Chip Kelly’s blocking schemes. Sigh.
Last week: 9
Berkelium97 (10): For the additional anniversary in a row, the breach alone managed one touchdown. This breach can’t possibly be worse than Cal’s…can it?
Alex Ghenis (10): Got destroyed by what’s axis out to be a acceptable Utah team. Their wins are adjoin an FCS aggregation and arguably the two affliction teams in the appointment appropriate now, so they are still a the basal admitting the 3–4 record.
FPI #63 (-8), L 42-10 @ Utah (23/17). Aing week: @ UC L.A. (60) 37.8% win chance
Leland Wong (10): Their aegis fabricated the offensively-ineffective Utah aggregation attending like the additional advancing of the Bear Raid. Accepting Khalil Tate would accept helped the box score, but apparently not the end result.
Nick Kranz (10): If you told me afore the division that Arizona absent Tate to a season-ending injury, this is about the akin of achievement I would accept expected. Shame that injuries and/or apprenticeship accept beggared us of the Pac-12’s best fun player.
thedozen (10): It was 35–0 Utah afore the Wildcats alike got on the board. I am not abiding whether I am added agitated about Cal accepting ashamed by the Bruins or accident by any allowance to Arizona.
Last week: 10
Berkelium97 (12): It’s not aberrant that I bead a aggregation into 12th afterwards a decidedly awkward loss. That is not the case this time. Based on the aftermost two performances, I anticipate this may absolutely be the affliction aggregation in the conference. If Cal can’t run for 250 yards adjoin an Oregon State aegis that allows 6.7 yards per rush, they should leave Beau Baldwin abaft in Corvallis.
Alex Ghenis (11): We’re aloft OSU because of our record, but contrarily it feels like we accord in the basement. A appealing absurd aegis is actuality ashen by one of the affliction offenses in the FBS. Aing week’s action for last-place will be interesting, abnormally with our alley woes the aftermost brace years and the actuality that OSU is advancing off a week’s rest. At this point I’m aloof reminding myself that a 10-win WSU aggregation absent 37–3 adjoin a 5-win Cal aggregation aftermost year, so annihilation can arise in agreement of approaching amateur and alteration directions.
FPI #67 (-13), L 37-7 v UC L.A. (69/60). Aing week: @ OSU (102) 66.3% win chance
Leland Wong (12): We accept bigger wins than Oregon State, but those feel like they happened six years ago. Plus, Cal deserves a steeper abatement because this is the accident that absolutely finalizes the unlikelihood that we’ll go bowling and the ability that we absolutely accept added problems that aboveboard accepted already aloft a time, admitting Oregon State knew they would be rebuilding this year.
Nick Kranz (11): Alike because the contest of the accomplished two weeks, there’s little cold acumen to anticipate that Cal is worse than Oregon State. BUT. Cal isn’t so abundant bigger that a alley win can be assumed.
Last week: 12
Alex Ghenis (12): OSU drops to the basement afterwards UCLA’s win in Berkeley. The Beavers are still underdogs adjoin Cal aing week, but they are advancing off a bye and Cal has been abominable on the alley (with some key injuries axle up, abnormally on a anemic offense). I abhorrence to say it, but it’s their best befalling to put a cleft in the win column.
FPI #102 ( 2), bye. Aing week: v Cal (67), 33.7% win chance.
Leland Wong (11): They’re out of my basement—hooray for not adversity a soul-crushing loss!
And there you accept it. This ties our affliction accomplishment aback the post–Week 11 baronial in 2017. At one point, the votes that were submitted had Cal at the complete basal (for the aboriginal time aback the preseason Power Rankings of the 2015 season), but some final votes bumped Cal up aloof enough.
Let’s alpha with a arbitrary of who voted Cal at the basal and who fought all acumen and argumentation to prop us up aloof a bit higher.
We computer-fy the votes to acquisition the boilerplate baronial for anniversary team; allocation these numbers from everyman to accomplished is how we came to the main, detached rankings listed above.
But let’s booty a attending at those precise, averaged rankings as able-bodied as the accepted deviations (a admeasurement of how berserk altered our votes were for anniversary team). Amount 1 shows the absolute rankings (in the bars) and the accepted deviations (with the absurdity bars). This will acquaint you aloof how close—or how far—we collectively placed the teams rather than the arid accumulation ethics of first, second, etc. that are frequently used.
Figure 1 shows a abundant accord of agnosticism in the average of the conference, apparent by the ample accepted deviations. We can additionally see tiers for this week—the aftereffect of beyond gaps than the accepted set amount of 1 amid seventh from eighth abode in acceptable rankings.
Said tiers can additionally be apparent in Fig. 2, which traces the absolute rankings of the teams over the advance of the season. Oregon and Washington are basically apperceive appropriate at the detached a.k.a. accepted ranks of aboriginal and second. But we see a ample gap that leads into the aing tier—teams that will apparently be angry for a basin (although Colorado’s bendable non-conference agenda gives them an bend in that absolute endeavor, they’re still actuality perceived as acceptable as the added teams here). We’ve additionally got such a aing three-way tie amid WSU, Utah, and USC for the best aggregation in this tier. And then—at the actual bottom—we see Cal get alike added adequate in the basement than we were aftermost week.
But if you do like those rounded, detached rankings, again I’ve got your back. We additionally blueprint their progression for the division (Fig. 3). Actuality we see that Oregon has been on a nice, constant ascend aback Anniversary 4, accepting one atom per anniversary until they accomplished the promised land. Colorado, on the added hand, has been aural one atom or beneath with Oregon aback Anniversary 2, but a big accident to USC in their aboriginal absolute analysis of the division has them trending the amiss way.
And Colorado’s big bead catapulted them into a three-way tie for the most-Mad aggregation at this point in the season. The added two teams with this title—ASU and USC—also had aerial expectations that they fell from; to accomplish affairs worse, ASU circuitous aloft this botheration by starting with criminally low perceptions. Cal’s appropriate on the heels of these teams; attending on the ablaze side—if we absolutely are in a slump, again we’re not gonna be able to bead any added than one spot! Among the teams with the everyman Madness are Oregon State and Washington, for never abnormality too far from the arctic ends of the conference.
Next anniversary will affection one d pitting some of the bigger teams adjoin anniversary added (Oregon–Washington State), a action in the average (USC–Utah), and a double-header of basement brawls (one of which will be decidedly of absorption to Cal fans).
This poll is closed.
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