According to abstracts extracted from the OAG Schedules Analyser in the aftermost anniversary of Oct-2016, absolute appointed airline bench numbers to/from/within Europe will access by 7% year-on-year in winter 2016/2017 compared with the antecedent winter season.
Note that the raw abstracts announce a 2% increase, but the advancing winter division is one anniversary beneath than aftermost winter and so – the advance amount charge be adapted to reflect this.
The 7% access in absolute bench numbers for Europe is an dispatch from the 6% advance amount of aftermost winter and is additionally faster than the admixture boilerplate amount of 3% pa in the decade back winter 2006/2007.
This winter’s 7% access is the accomplished anniversary advance amount in winter bench accommodation back 2007/2008, back it accomplished 8%.
Capacity advance in Europe was additionally about aerial in the summer division this year. In summer 2016 absolute airline seats in Europe access by 6% for the additional alternating summer (adjusting for diff division lengths). Prior to summer 2015, advance had not accomplished 6% back 2010. The 6% advance amount in summer 2016 was faster than the admixture boilerplate advance of 4% pa over the 10 years back summer 2006.
Breaking bottomward the advance in bench numbers from Europe to anniversary apple arena this winter, the accomplished amount of advance will be to the Middle East, according to the OAG data. Seats amid Europe and the Middle East will abound by 10% this winter, in band with the access aftermost winter and alone hardly beneath the 10-year boilerplate of 11% pa.
In every added arena from Europe winter 2016/2017 will affection bench advance that is both faster than aftermost winter and aloft its 10-year admixture boilerplate amount (see blueprint below).
Intra-Europe bench advance will be 7% (up from 6% advance aftermost winter), while advance to North America will be 6% (a apportioned access in aftermost winter’s rate) and advance to Asia will be 5% (compared with collapsed aftermost winter). Bench numbers to Latin America will abound by 7% (versus 6% in winter 2015/2016) and to Africa, they will be up by 6% (after a 3% cut aftermost winter).
Summer 2016 accommodation advance from Europe was faster than its 10-year boilerplate in all but two regions. Accommodation was cut to Africa this summer, mainly absorption geopolitical apropos over North Africa, while accommodation advance slowed to Asia, absorption actual anemic assemblage revenues. In both regions there will be an dispatch of advance in the advancing winter season.
The Middle East has consistently accomplished the accomplished advance ante in bench numbers to/from Europe, while Africa has consistently underperformed compared with added regions. As acclaimed above, bench advance from Europe to all regions afar from Middle East will be faster than its 10-year boilerplate in winter 2016/2017.
Moreover, this winter’s year-on-year advance will be the accomplished winter advance for several years for abounding regions from Europe.
Intra-Europe bench advance of 7% will be accomplished back winter 2007/2008, back it accomplished 8%.
North Atlantic advance of 6% will be the accomplished back it hit 10% in winter 2010/2011 and – accordingly – the aforementioned applies to Europe-Africa capacity.
Growth of 7% to Latin America this winter is the accomplished back a 14% access in winter 2007/2008. In the case of Europe to Asia this winter’s advance of about 5% is aloft its 10-year average, but it was faster as afresh as winter 2013/2014, back it approached 7% (but it was collapsed to single-digit in anniversary of the accomplished two winters).
The blueprint beneath shows the top 20 airline groups in Europe ranked by their allotment of absolute seats from Europe to all regions this winter. These 20 groups will accomplish 79% of all seats to/from/in Europe this winter (compared with 77% in summer 2016).
Collectively, the top 20 will abound bench accommodation by 6% year-on-year in winter 2016/2017, analogously to their advance amount this summer, but hardly slower than absolute bazaar advance of 7%. Advance to Eastern/Central Europe, at 15%, will outdistance that of Western Europe, at 6%.
Those authoritative the actual 21% of seats will abound by 12% this winter, accelerating from a 6% access in summer 2016. In aggregate, low amount airlines to/from/in Europe are additionally growing at 12% this winter, analogously to their 11% access in summer 2016. They annual for 34% of absolute seats – up from 33% aftermost winter.
The top bristles airline groups by seats this winter are Europe’s three better bequest airline groups and the two arch LCCs. In adjustment of admeasurement by seats in winter 2016/2017 they are the Lufthansa Accumulation (11% of seats), Ryanair (10%), IAG (10%), Air France-KLM (8%) and easyJet (6%).
They are carefully followed by sixth ranked Turkish Airlines (6% of seats), but there is afresh a gap to cardinal seven Aeroflot (4% of seats) and SAS (4% of seats).
All but four of the top 20 groups are growing bench accommodation year-on-year this winter, with seven growing at ante of 10% or added in winter 2016/2017. In adjustment of their advance amount these seven are Flybe (growth of 19%), Wizz Air ( 19%), TAP Portugal ( 17%), Norwegian ( 13%), Aeroflot ( 12%), Ryanair ( 12%) and Emirates ( 10%), which is the alone top 20 amateur that is not based in Europe.
Other groups in the top 20 that are growing faster than the 10-year boilerplate winter advance amount of 3% this winter are easyJet ( 8%), Lufthansa Accumulation ( 5%), Finnair ( 5%), IAG ( 4%), Air France-KLM ( 4%) and SAS ( 4%).
Among these, alone easyJet is growing faster than the bazaar amount of 7%. Lufthansa Group’s advance is apprenticed by double-digit increases in bench numbers by its LCC Eurowings ( 14%) and by SWISS and Austrian, while Lufthansa itself is acid accommodation by 3%.
For Air France-KLM: Air France is blurred its accommodation modestly, KLM is growing at about 5% while its LCC accessory Transavia is growing bench numbers by 35% this winter. IAG’s advance is additionally mainly apprenticed by its LCC subsidiary, Vueling, which is growing by 14%, while British Airways is growing by beneath than 1% and Iberia by 3% this winter.
There are bristles amid the top 20 with winter accommodation that is either collapsed or lower year-on-year. Turkish Airlines (seats bargain by 2%) and Pegasus (flat capacity) are responding to a slump in appeal in Turkey. Air Berlin Accumulation is befitting its bench numbers aloof beneath aftermost winter’s akin as it embarks on its latest restructuring. Its adolescent Etihad advance Alitalia is additionally captivation accommodation about flat. Aegean Accumulation is acid bench numbers by 2% this winter, while switching cogent accommodation from Aegean Airlines to Olympic Air.
Seats on routes aural Europe represent 85% of the absolute cardinal of seats operated from Europe in the winter 2016/2017 schedule. Not surprisingly, therefore, the 7% advance amount on intra-Europe is agnate to that in the absolute market.
Airlines that are classified as low amount airlines in the CAPA LCC database annual for 39% of the appointed seats recorded by OAG on intra-Europe routes for winter 2016/2017 – up from 38% aftermost winter. (These abstracts are hardly lower than their summer equivalents of 41% in summer 2016 and 39% in 2015).
LCC bench advance will be 12% year-on-year, while advance will be 4% for all added airlines in accumulated on routes aural Europe.
The top 20 groups by seats aural Europe ascendancy 84% of intra-Europe accommodation this summer – a college allotment than the 79% for the top 20 by seats from Europe to all regions.
Double-digit bench advance on routes aural Europe this winter is actuality implemented by eight groups, of which four are classified as LCCs (Flybe, Wizz Air, Ryanair and Norwegian). S7 Airlines, Brussels Airlines, TAP Portugal and Aeroflot are additionally growing at added than 10% on intra-Europe routes in winter 2016/2017.
EasyJet is growing accommodation by 8% this winter, authoritative it the alone added intra-Europe top 20 accumulation to abound faster than the market.
The LCC subsidiaries of the Big Three European bequest airline groups are additionally growing rapidly aural Europe this summer. Lufthansa’s Eurowings/Germanwings will access bench numbers by 14%, analogously to the 13% advance for IAG’s Vueling. Air France-KLM’s Transavia will abound its bench accommodation by 36% year-on-year this winter.
Six of the intra-Europe top 20 are acid accommodation on routes aural the abstemious this winter: Turkish Airlines, Aegean Group, Alitalia, Air Europa, Pegasus and Air Berlin Group.
On a year-round base the North Atlantic is the better intercontinental bazaar by seats from Europe, accounting for 4% of the absolute (although the Middle East is hardly bigger in the winter schedule). Advance in bench numbers amid Europe and North America in winter 2016/2017 is set to echo aftermost winter’s amount of 6%, the accomplished back 2010/2011.
The top 20 airline groups in this bazaar accomplish a accumulated allotment of 95% of seats this winter. Immunised collective ventures aural the three all-around alliances annual for 71% of seats amid the two continents in winter 2016/2017. This share has alone from 74% in winter 2015/2016.
The Atlantic JV aural Star is growing accommodation by 5% this winter, apprenticed mainly by Air Canada, additionally by Lufthansa and SWISS, but the added two alliances are abbreviation accommodation this winter. In oneworld the 1% accommodation abridgement in the North Atlantic JV is mainly due to American Airlines, while SkyTeam’s JV will accept 1% beneath accommodation as a aftereffect of cuts from Delta and Alitalia.
The absolute in immunised JVs is 76% of seats including the accommodation of Virgin Atlantic, which has a JV with Delta. This has collapsed from 80% aftermost winter for the affidavit accustomed above, and because Virgin will abate its bench numbers on the North Atlantic by 6%.
Total accommodation in the three alliance-based JVs will abound by 1% – slower than bazaar growth. Including the Virgin-Delta JV, absolute JV advance will be beneath than 1%. By contrast, accommodation alfresco the immunised JVs will abound by 30% this winter.
The top 20 groups will access bench numbers on the North Atlantic by aloof beneath 6% and those alfresco the top 20 will abound by 22% this winter.
Four airline groups accept a North Atlantic bench allotment this winter of 10% or more. The top two are European: baton IAG, with 16% of seats, and cardinal two Lufthansa Group, with 12%. The aing two are from the US: United and Delta, both with a bench allotment of 10%. Fifth placed Air France-KLM has 9%, and cardinal six American Airlines has 8% of seats. Air Canada (6%) and Virgin Atlantic (5%) additionally accept a bench allotment of 5% or more.
Five of the top 10 groups in this bazaar are to abate accommodation in winter 2016/2017: United, Delta, American, Virgin Atlantic and Turkish Airlines.
The fastest-growing big amateur on the North Atlantic this winter is Air Canada, with bench advance of 15%.
Among the top 20 there will additionally be double-digit advance (or higher) from Norwegian, SAS, Icelandair, Air Berlin Group, WOW Air, TAP Portugal and LOT Polish.
LCCs are accretion bench numbers by 147% in accumulated this winter. In accession to those already mentioned, Eurowings and WestJet are new entrants this winter about to aftermost winter (although they both operated in the summer).
The bout abettor Thomas Cook Accumulation is growing appointed accommodation for its airlines by 17% beyond the North Atlantic. Added groups alfresco the top 20 that are growing rapidly this winter accommodate Air Europa and Brussels Airlines (both accretion accommodation by about 50%).
As antecedent CAPA assay letters accept observed: the immunised alliances abide ascendant on the North Atlantic, but the actualization of another business models is accouterment added competition.
The top 20 airline groups in the bazaar from Europe to Asia ascendancy 80% of seats. This bazaar is set to access bench numbers by about 5% in winter 2016/2017, afterwards collapsed accommodation aftermost winter (and advance of beneath than 2% in summer 2016).
European airline groups absorb the top bristles places in this market: Lufthansa Accumulation (10% of seats), Air France-KLM (9%), Turkish Airlines (8%), Aeroflot Accumulation (8%) and IAG (5%).
Note that about a division of Aeroflot Group’s bench accommodation to Asia is on routes to Central Asia, which mainly comprise above Soviet republics. This boosts its Asia accommodation total, but it would still absorb fourth abode alike afterwards its Central Asia capacity. (Note, too, that calm Russian cities that are classified as actuality in North East Asia by advantage of their geographic area in Russia’s far east are afar from this analysis).
With the barring of Aeroflot, the arch European groups are growing at alert ante this winter on Europe-Asia (see blueprint below). The arch Asian airline groups – Thai Air, Singapore Airlines, Air China, Cathay Pacific, Air India – are additionally growing adequately cautiously. Amid these, alone Cathay is growing faster than the 5% bazaar advance on Europe-Asia (it is accretion seats by 7%).
The fastest-growing airline accumulation in the top 20 on Europe to Asia this winter is China Eastern, with an access in bench numbers of 29%. Uzbekistan Airways and Ural Airlines are both growing at 28%, but their accommodation is bedeviled by Central Asia.
Aeroflot Accumulation is accretion bench numbers by 19% amid Europe and Asia (this is 18% if Central Asia is excluded). There is additionally double-digit advance from Pakistan International Airlines, Jet Airways and Air Astana (again, a Central Asian airline).
Korean Air and China Southern are acid Europe-Asia bench numbers this winter.
Europe-Middle East accounts for 4% of absolute seats to/from/in Europe in winter 2016/2017. The top 20 airline groups amid Europe and the Middle East accept a accumulated bench allotment of 87% this winter, led by Emirates with 26% of seats. This is the accomplished bench allotment for any abettor in any bazaar from Europe.
Europe-Middle East is the alone avenue arena from Europe area best of the arch places are not active by European airline groups. Ranked additional is Qatar Airways, with 12% of seats, followed by Turkish Airlines (the better European airline accumulation in this market), with 9%, and Etihad, with 6%.
This demonstrates the connected accent of the four all-around superconnectors in this market, although their year-on-year advance ante are slowing this winter about to their summer 2016 growth.
Emirates’ winter advance will abate by 9%, afterwards 17% in the summer; Qatar Airways will abound by 9% this winter, afterwards 17% in the summer; Turkish is set to cut bench numbers by 2% this winter, afterwards advance of 16% in the summer; and Etihad is to advance collapsed accommodation on Europe-Middle East this winter, as it did in summer 2016.
There is added accelerated advance this winter from fifth ranked El Al (seat numbers 10%), Saudi Arabian Airlines ( 28%) and the highest-ranked Western European airline accumulation – IAG ( 19%).
The aing better Western European group, Lufthansa Group, is growing by alone 3% this winter, but the top 10 is afresh completed by two airlines with able double-digit advance on Europe-Middle East – namely flydubai and Pegasus Airlines. There are a added eight airline groups in the top 20 that are growing at double-digit rates.
Apart from Turkish Airlines, alone two others in the top 20 are acid accommodation this winter: Middle East Airlines and Royal Jordanian.
Routes from Europe to Africa annual for aloof beneath 3% of absolute seats to/from/in Europe in winter 2016/2017. Absolute Europe-Africa bench accommodation is set to access by 6% this winter, afterwards a 3% cut aftermost winter and a 9% cut in summer 2016. Accommodation cuts were focused on North Africa, as a aftereffect of agitator events, decidedly in Egypt.
The planned advance on Europe-Africa this winter is the better amount of access back winter 2010/2011.
The top 20 groups in this bazaar accept a collective allotment of seats of 88% this winter. They are led by Air France-KLM, with 15% of seats, followed by Royal Air Maroc, with 8%. Third placed Air Algerie has 7%, aloof advanced of Turkish Airlines and IAG, additionally with a bench allotment 7%. TUI Accumulation is sixth, with 6%, aloof advanced of Tunisair and Ryanair, with 5%.
Among the top 20 there will be double-digit bench accommodation advance this winter by a cardinal of airlines, including the North African Royal Air Maroc, Air Algerie, Tunisair and Air Arabia Maroc, in accession to the European Lufthansa Group, TAP Portugal (the fastest-growing, with a 40% increase), Brussels Airlines and Alitalia
Thomas Cook Accumulation and easyJet are still planning accommodation cuts to Africa – mainly absorption anniversary destinations in Egypt.
The aboriginal bazaar by seats from Europe is Latin America (1% of absolute seats in Europe). On Europe-Latin America the top 20 airline groups ascendancy 96% of seats in the winter 2016/2017 schedule.
Seat numbers will be up by 7% on Europe-Latin America in summer 2016 – an access on the 6% advance amount aftermost winter.
European groups boss this market, led by Air France-KLM (21% of seats in winter 2016/2017), IAG (16%), TUI Accumulation (8%), Lufthansa Accumulation (6%), Thomas Cook Accumulation (6%) and Air Europa (6%). The accomplished placed Latin American accumulation is LATAM, which is seventh this winter with 6% of seats, fractionally advanced of TAP Portugal (5%).
According to OAG, 16 of the top 20 airline groups in this bazaar are growing bench numbers and eight are growing at double-digit ante this winter (see blueprint below). Although the top bristles are growing at adequately apathetic rates, there is able advance from Air Europa, Air Caraibes, Avianca, Alitalia, Aeromexico, XL Airways, Aeroflot and Evelop Airlines.
Only three (TAP Portugal, Air Berlin Accumulation and Blue Panorama) are acid capacity, while Lufthansa Accumulation is befitting it flat.
As ever, OAG schedules abstracts are accountable to change and airlines always acclimatize their accommodation plans.
That said, the accessible abstracts do annihilation to bedew apropos that accommodation advance is accelerating in Europe this winter, afterwards an dispatch in the summer division also. LCCs are active advance and demography bazaar allotment on intra-European routes, but are additionally starting to accept an appulse on continued booty routes – best conspicuously on the North Atlantic.
Global macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns, advancing back the world’s airline area has been bearing operating accumulation margins at new aerial levels, accept led to catechism marks about the sustainability of the advance that the industry has enjoyed back the all-around banking crisis.
Europe’s airlines will charge to abide acute for any assurance of abrasion appeal in the face of the accepted accommodation acceleration.
See accompanying report: CAPA airline accumulation outlook. Record margins from accommodation restraint, but upswings are not forever
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